Prize Draw Odds Compared: What £10 Really Buys Against the National Lottery
Ten pounds buys five lines of Lotto, and a 1 in 9 million shot at the jackpot. The same £10 in a small That Prize Guy competition can buy you a 1 in 25 chance of £100. Spend it on Omaze and nobody can tell you your exact chance, because it depends on a number that is only known when the draw closes.
So which is the better bet? It is the question people type into Google every time a house draw advert lands, and it gets asked more in the run-up to Christmas, when these sites advertise hardest. The honest answer is that the odds alone will not tell you. The prize and the size of the draw have to come with them.
Here is how to compare them properly.
What £10 buys
| Game | What £10 gets you | Top prize | Chance of top prize |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lotto | 5 lines at £2 | Jackpot, varies | 1 in 9,011,495 |
| EuroMillions | 4 lines at £2.50 | Jackpot, varies | 1 in 34,959,540 |
| Win a Million | 20 entries on the monthly plan | £1,000,000 | 1 in 1,669,536 |
| Omaze | 15 entries | House worth millions | Not known until the draw closes |
| That Prize Guy | 12 entries at 79p | £100 cash (example) | 1 in 25 |
The Lotto and EuroMillions figures use the single-line odds of 1 in 45,057,474 and 1 in 139,838,160, divided by the number of lines. Win a Million’s jackpot odds are 1 in 33,390,720 per entry. Prices for the draws come from our reviews of Omaze, That Prize Guy and Win a Million, and they do change.
Do not read that table from top to bottom as a ranking. The first three rows are nothing like the last. A chance of £100 and a chance of tens of millions are different products, and a better number does not make a better bet.
The three kinds of draw
Most of the confusion comes from treating these as one thing. They run on three different models, and the odds mean something different in each.
Fixed odds. Lotto, EuroMillions and Win a Million work out your chance from the numbers themselves. It does not matter how many people play. Your odds are the same in a quiet week as a busy one, although a jackpot may be shared.
Fixed entries. That Prize Guy competitions have a set maximum number of entries. Once they are sold, the draw happens. Buy one of 300 and your chance is 1 in 300, and you know that before you pay.
Open-ended entries. Omaze sells entries until the draw closes, so your chance shrinks with each one sold. The winner is guaranteed, but the odds are not known in advance.
What Omaze actually says about its odds
Omaze does publish something, in its FAQ, and it is worth reading carefully. It says there are “typically millions of entries” for a major draw, and that the average customer has “an approximately 1 in 1.4 million chance” of winning the grand prize each month.
That figure describes the average customer, who “typically has many entries”. It is not the odds on a £10 purchase. To show the scale, here is what 15 entries would give you at different draw sizes. These entry totals are our own illustrations, not Omaze’s figures:
| Total entries in the draw | Chance with 15 entries |
|---|---|
| 5 million | 1 in 333,333 |
| 10 million | 1 in 666,667 |
| 20 million | 1 in 1,333,333 |
Even at the long end, that is several times better than five lines of Lotto, and the prize is a house. It is also the reason these draws sell. The trade-off is that a Lotto jackpot is usually bigger, and you cannot see how crowded an Omaze draw is when you buy.
The sum nobody shows you
For fixed-entry draws there is a simple calculation that tells you more than the odds do: prize value divided by what all the entries cost. It tells you how much of each pound comes back as prizes if every entry sells.
Using the illustrative competitions from our That Prize Guy review:
| Competition | Entry | Max entries | Total if sold out | Back per £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £100 cash | 79p | 300 | £237 | 42p |
| £1,000 cash | 99p | 2,500 | £2,475 | 40p |
| £10,000 cash | £1.49 | 15,000 | £22,350 | 45p |
| £50,000 cash | £2.49 | 50,000 | £124,500 | 40p |
| Car worth £40,000 | £1.99 | 40,000 | £79,600 | 50p |
Those are examples, and real competitions vary, but the method works on any draw that publishes a cap. It is the same idea as RTP on a slot. Odds tell you how often. This tells you how much.
It is also why a free entry is worth having if you are going to play at all. Every prize draw in this piece has a free postal route with the same chance of winning, which is the legal reason they do not need a gambling licence.
The “any prize” number
Win a Million advertises that 1 in 9 entries wins a prize, and Omaze says the average customer can have up to a 1 in 6 chance of winning a prize over 12 months. Both may be accurate, and both describe something different from what the advert makes you picture.
“Any prize” is dominated by the smallest prizes, so a good any-prize number is not evidence of a good top-prize chance. Ask what the small prizes are worth compared with the entry you paid for. A prize worth less than your stake is, in practice, a refund on part of your loss.
What the new code changes
In November 2025 the government published a Voluntary Code of Good Practice for Prize Draw Operators, and signatories agreed to implement it by 20 May 2026. Two parts matter to you.
On odds, it says operators should, where possible, give “clear and easily accessible information regarding the likelihood of winning a prize” before you enter. It accepts the exact chance depends on tickets sold, and suggests the maximum number of tickets or data from comparable previous draws as ways of showing it.
On spending, operators should not accept more than £250 a month per player by credit card, and no credit card payments at all for instant win draws. They should also set monthly spend limits or let you set your own.
It is voluntary, it is not the Gambling Commission, and the protections are not the same as those at a licensed site. GAMSTOP does not cover these draws, for one. If you want a limit that sticks, read how deposit limits work at licensed sites and then set an equivalent budget yourself.
How to read any prize draw in five questions
- Is the number of entries capped? If yes, you can work out your odds exactly.
- If it is not, what does the operator say about past draws? Under the code it should tell you something.
- What comes back per £1 if it sells out? Do the sum above.
- Is the prize guaranteed? Check whether the draw goes ahead whatever is sold, and whether there is a cash alternative.
- What are you buying into? If it is a subscription, find out how it renews and how to cancel it before you start.
FAQs
What are the odds of winning Omaze?
They depend on how many entries are sold, so there is no fixed figure. Omaze says there are typically millions of entries in a major draw, and that the average customer has an approximately 1 in 1.4 million chance of winning the grand prize each month.
Is Omaze better value than the lottery?
On the odds of the top prize, £10 on an Omaze draw will usually beat £10 on Lotto. On prize size, a Lotto jackpot is usually larger. Neither is a way to make money, and both are designed to pay out less than they take in.
Which UK prize draw has the best odds?
Small fixed-entry competitions have the shortest odds, because few entries are sold. They also have the smallest prizes. Compare what comes back per £1 rather than the odds alone.
Do free postal entries have the same chance?
Yes. Each entry has the same chance, however it was made. That is part of the legal basis for these draws.
Are prize draws regulated by the Gambling Commission?
Not in the way a casino is. Draws with a genuine free entry route fall outside lottery licensing, and the 2025 code is voluntary. We explain the detail in why prize draws do not need a gambling licence.
The Short Version
- £10 buys a 1 in 9 million Lotto jackpot chance, and a chance you cannot calculate on Omaze.
- Fixed odds, fixed entries and open-ended draws are three different products.
- For capped draws, work out what comes back per £1, not just the odds.
- “Any prize” figures are mostly small prizes.
- Set a budget first. These sit outside GAMSTOP, so the limit has to be yours.
The government’s code is published on GOV.UK (opens in a new tab). Treat any draw as paying for a bit of fun with a small ticket price, not as a plan. If gambling has stopped being fun, the support links in the footer of this page are the right place to start.